2012: un año prometedor para compradores de propiedades en Francia
El año 2012 podría ser favorable para quienes deseen comprar propiedades en Francia.
El año 2012 podría ser favorable para quienes deseen comprar propiedades en Francia. Es importante señalar que parece que el poder de negociación de los compradores mejorará. Los pronósticos de Century 21 y Fnaim, presentados el martes 3 de enero, fueron claros: en 2012, el mercado experimentará una pausa.
Century 21 pronostica una caída de aproximadamente el 10% al 15% en el número de transacciones durante el año. Según Fnaim, la actividad del mercado inmobiliario podría reducirse en aproximadamente un 15% hasta las 700.000 transacciones en 2012.
Una combinación del endurecimiento de los criterios de préstamos bancarios, la reforma fiscal para las ganancias de capital sobre propiedades inmobiliarias de alquiler y segundas residencias a partir del 1 de febrero, la espera antes de cada elección presidencial… Varios factores se han combinado para crear un año bastante sombrío.
PRONÓSTICO DIFÍCIL En 2012, «menos personas tendrán intención de vender, y las familias pospondrán sus proyectos, especialmente si la venta no es necesaria (debido a un nacimiento o una defunción, divorcio o traslado laboral)», advierte el presidente de Century 21 Francia. No hay indicios de que los precios vayan a caer realmente. También es bastante difícil hacer predicciones, incluso para los profesionales. La fuerte demanda de quienes todavía pueden comprar y la escasez de oferta podrían generar nuevas presiones sobre los precios, lo que resultaría en un aumento del 2% al 3% para 2012, según Century 21.
En cuanto a Fnaim, thinks that prices could fall by 5% in 2012, due to tighter lending criteria, the shortening of the duration of debt, rising unemployment, declining consumer confidence, and the lack of most French first-time buyers who cannot get financial assistance from their parents.
The year 2011 was exceptional however; the Ministry of Housing reported 832,000 transactions between October 2010 and September 2011. A record compared to previous years (784,000 in 2010, 585,000 in 2009 and 673,000 in 2008), which competes with the activity level before the crisis (810,000 in December 2007).
Prices have risen sharply: + 7.3% over the year throughout France, according to Fnaim, + 6% according to Century 21. “We’ve returned to the same price level as in 2007,” says Mr. Pallincourt. In Paris, the annual increase reached 22.7%, according to Fnaim, and 12.57%, according to Century 21.
This price increase has excluded certain categories of purchasers. “The increase in interest rates – from an average of 3.65% to 4.2% in one year – the tightening of credit conditions, coupled with rising house prices have brushed aside a whole sector of the population from the housing market, who are now , financially insolvent according to Century 21. In 2011, at national level, they recorded 11% less buyers from the middle classes , and 16% fewer buyers under the age of forty, while the percentage of over sixties buying property has increased by 20%. This segment of the population often already owns a property and can sell it to finance a new purchase.
However if one looks closer, the market started to decrease from autumn onwards with prices throughout France down by 2.2% compared to the first half year, according to Century 21. In the last quarter of the year, prices were unchanged from the third, according to Fnaim.
According to Matthieu Cany from Sextant French Properties; “In 2011, 50% of Sextant’s buyers bought a main residence, 30% a holiday home and 20% an investment property which is most of the time a French leaseback. Thanks to our independent French mortgage department we are also able to work around banks criteria and have successfully secured 82 French mortgages in 2011.
At Sextant we believe that 2012 will be a good opportunity for overseas buyers to buy a holiday or permanent home with more buying power than ever. Our forecast projection for 2012 is for an increase of international buyers choosing to invest in France because of the financial stability accompanied with its solid property market.”
Fuente: lemonde.fr
