Mortgage rates in 2026: stabilisation rather than upheaval, why now is the right time to buy

The question of borrowing rates remains central for all those considering a property project in 2026. After the sharp rise observed between 2022 and 2023, the credit market has entered a more peaceful phase. Rather than a new wave of increase or a spectacular fall, the signals are converging today towards a progressive stabilisation of rates.

A rise that materialised… then plateaued

Several months ago, many analysts were anticipating a rise in rates for 2026. This forecast has partly come true: rates have settled at higher levels than in 2021–2022.

However, this upward movement has not accelerated. Since the start of the year, the indicators show mainly a stabilisation phase rather than a continuation of marked increase.

In other words, the credit market seems to have found a new equilibrium: rates that are more “normal” than before, but without uncontrolled drift.

Banks are gradually reopening the taps

In February 2026, several analyses highlight that banks are once again showing greater openness to financing solid applications. This reflects a return to more classic functioning of the credit market:

• Establishments are becoming selective again, but not closed.
• Good profiles (deposit, professional stability, controlled debt-to-income ratio) continue to obtain attractive terms.
• The general credit climate is less tense than in 2023–2024.

This context confirms that the market is not in crisis, but rather in a normalisation phase.

Why a sharp fall in rates seems unlikely in the short term

Several factors support stabilisation rather than a rapid drop in rates in the coming months:

• The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious.
  It is monitoring inflation and has not announced an imminent cut to its key interest rates. As long as it maintains this position, it is unlikely that mortgage rates will fall sharply.
• The 10-year OAT continues to influence banks.
  This benchmark rate for the French state plays a key role in setting bank rate grids. However, it is not showing a clear downward trend likely to trigger a significant easing of mortgage rates.
• The 2026 budget vote has calmed the markets.
  At the beginning of the year, the delay in its adoption created financial uncertainty. Once this point was clarified, a slight easing was observed in February, but without a major shift towards significantly lower rates.

Should you wait for a hypothetical fall in rates to buy?

This is the question many prospective buyers are asking themselves.

At this stage, waiting for a significant fall in rates in the coming months appears risky:

• A significant fall is neither guaranteed nor predictable.
• While you wait, the property market may evolve and certain opportunities may pass you by.
• Your personal situation (income, life project, deposit) may change, making access to credit more complex later on.

In short: basing your purchase decision solely on the hope of a fall in rates is not a reliable strategy.

What if rates fall in a year or two?

Good news: buying today does not lock you into your rate permanently.

If rates actually fall in 12 to 24 months, you can renegotiate your loan with your bank or have it bought by another establishment.

In practice, this operation generally becomes worthwhile when the gap between your current rate and the new market rates reaches around 0.7% to 1%. From this threshold, the savings made over the loan term usually offset the costs associated with renegotiation or credit buyback.

This means you can:

• move forward with your project today,
• then optimise your financing later if the market becomes more favourable.

What this means for your property project in 2026

In summary:

• Rates are stable, not in free fall.
• Credit remains accessible for solid applications.
• Waiting for an uncertain fall is not an optimal strategy.
• Buying now does not prevent you from renegotiating later if the context improves.

In this context, 2026 appears as a year where it is reasonable to move forward with your property project rather than remaining in a waiting position.

The key is to carefully prepare your application, define your budget properly, and be accompanied by a professional who can guide you on both the choice of property and the financing strategy best suited to your situation.

Sources:
Magnolia – Influence of the 10-year OAT on rates
Le Figaro Immobilier – Effect of the 2026 budget vote on rates
ToutSurMesFinances – Rate forecasts (March–May 2026)
Pretto – Analysis of February 2026 rates
Les Échos – “Banks reopen the taps for solid applications” (February 2026)